Whos the Opposition anyway?

When I was writing two weeks ago to suggest some light-hearted improvements to the CBCs 7 Wonders of Canada contest, I deliberately didnt include our federal government as a candidate because, well, I thought that one weak joke was enough for a single week. I could have tried it though, and they would not have seemed out of place.

Just think about it for a moment, and youll see why; the federal Conservative party really is a wondrously strange and confused organization.

Even in these uncollegial times, it is difficult to imagine a political party more centrally controlled. They speak, as is often noted, with one well-scripted voice. Yet, at odds with the apparent cunning of their strict discipline, the Tories script still belongs to an opposition party.

We all know by now that Stephen Harper and his crew love to answer every question-period thrust with some variation on their favourite non-answer, the Liberals did worse. We know as well that they are opaque and obstructionist and that they spend their most creative hours screening tapes of Stephane Dions old speeches, picking out clips for attack ads. These are opposition characteristics, and so is their unwillingness to do anything constructive that cant be framed in anti-Liberal terms.

Im sure there will be many who disagree, but there will be ample opportunity to test my theory this summer, because I have a hunch this will be Harpers worst season since the party made him flip burgers in that little cowboy vest.

It will begin next week, in a kind of slow pre-season build-up, when Mr. Harper flies off to Germany for the 2007 G8 summit. Upcoming negotiations for the second phase of the Kyoto Protocol are sure to figure hugely in the discussions, and Im sure the P.M. is giddy with anticipation, what with his Stirling environmental record and all.

What the (real) opposition has failed to note in their angry speeches, however, is that Harpers environmental dirty deeds appointing a failed Ontario energy minister, MP John Baird, to craft an emissions reduction plan for our great-grandchildren and yapping about the ruinous cost of Kyoto compliance without offering any good numbers to prove it are rather picayune compared with, say, G.W. Bushs. All Harper has done is nothing. And by refusing to endorse or oppose a European negotiating position on Kyoto#2, he only continues to do nothing.

The Grub & Moil says hes keeping his options open. Maybe. But with the terms of the new treaty still up for negotiation, I think Harper realizes he wont be able to successfully blame the Liberals for whatever unpopular side he takes (and theyre both unpopular somewhere). Exposing himself to political risk doesnt fit the oppositional mindset. Unfortunately for him, doing nothing right through the summit will only invite contempt; he cant avoid the choice.

And so it will continue this summer, especially on June 29, which might well be Harpers greatest time of judgement.

As most will have heard, the Assembly of First Nations has promised to talk, walk, protest, and blockade all across the country on that day, to draw attention to the ridiculously slow process for settling native land claims and the shamefully depressed conditions on many reserves. Im not sure its a very smart idea, but I do see the AFNs point when they say theyve run out of options. I also see how theyll be putting Harper in a tight spot.

The sluggish land claims process is a valid gripe. So is the cancellation of the Kelowna Accord. And so would be the inadequacy of legal safeguards against corruption in native government. But then again, so is Hey, these guys are blocking my train. What will the Harper Tories do when they have to choose? Will they get heavy-handed, ignore the AFNs complaints, or try to explain away this governments silence on native issues? Again, no choice will be politically beneficial, and it wont be easy to blame the Liberals.

Between and beyond the G8 and the day of action, there will be other challenges for the Conservatives. Refusing to even hear testimony from witnesses ready to expose RCMP corruption wont make a growing public crisis of confidence in the national police force go away, and stall tactics in committees wont make anyone forget about the abandoned slogans, accountability and transparency. On these and other questions, people are starting to ask for government, not opposition.

Mr. Harper and his party are light-years beyond Rodney MacDonald and the Nova Scotia Tories when it comes to creating the IMAGE of action, but they are really almost as paralyzed. Perhaps they think they are fighting an endless election campaign for that long-desired majority. Whatever their reasons, this summer will change their tune, or it will strip the mask from Canadas new government.



Mark Leeming is a Merigomish freelance writer. His column appears Saturdays.